Analyst: Lower Call of Duty Sales Due to Casual Gamers, Used Games
PiperJaffray analyst Michael Olson predicted that Modern Warfare 3 will be the eighth largest selling game in March 2012 — as opposed to Black Ops, which was 4th on a similar time scale — and will sell less than half of what its predecessor pushed a year ago.
“We believe big name titles are no longer able to sustain ‘fat tails.’ This ‘thinning tail’ phenomenon is driven by 1) casual gamers leaving the market, 2) a steeper pre-sale and up-front curve, and 3) cannibalization from the pre-owned market.”
I’m no fancy-pants market analyst — I’m just a denim-pants writer — but don’t you think releasing the same re-branded product year after year after year has something to do with the diminishing sales of a burnt-out franchise? That maybe, just maybe, gamers have become disenchanted with the obvious cash-grab of yearly sequels?
But, hey… What do I know?