Posted on March 29, 2008,

Former Xbox Employee Thinks Consoles to “Die Out” in 5-10 Years

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First, it was an onslaught of individuals claiming that PCs were doomed as a gaming platform, and now we’ve gotten several industry professionals saying the same thing about consoles. The latest is former Microsoft employee Sandy Duncan, who worked on the Xbox project in Europe. He told That VideoGame Blog that he believes consoles as we know them will “die out” in the next five to ten years.

“The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,” Duncan said.

He continued, “There is a definite ‘convergence’ of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be ‘virtualized’ as web services by your content provider.”

Duncan also didn’t believe the standard model for distributing games will last much longer – which means EA might not be the same company it is today in five years. Suffice it to say, he’s a big subscriber to the notion that changes are abound in the games industry. Aside from digital distribution, I’m not really convinced that we’re going to see a dramatic change in the platforms we play games on.

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10 Comments on Former Xbox Employee Thinks Consoles to “Die Out” in 5-10 Years

Jose

On March 29, 2008 at 10:31 pm

I love being right

Lupo

On March 29, 2008 at 11:27 pm

I don’t think consoles will “die out”, but I do think that they will eventually evolve(or maybe devolve?) back to being PC’s themselves.

cihx

On March 29, 2008 at 11:27 pm

kind of makes sense with how expensive they are getting. next gen they will be more than a home pc. and they will still try to grossly overcharge for items that are dirt cheap by pc standards.games cost way less on pc. usually by 10-20 on avg. take ninja reflex for example. 9.99 on pc and 39.99 on wii. plus a 512mb flash memory for 360 costs 40?!!

Bounce

On March 30, 2008 at 2:38 am

Can’t say that I’m surprised. The PC has been “Doomed” so many times that I stopped counting, yet it’s still here and better than ever.

It just goes to show that if you make an awesome product, it’ll live forever. Consoles are not awesome products, that’s why people call them failbox, ps3-bbq and wii-hurt-my-shoulder.

SpiralGray

On March 30, 2008 at 10:18 am

Wow! What amazing insight. He determined that business is cyclical. What next? He’s going to predict that the sky will be blue tomorrow?

The_Funktasm

On March 30, 2008 at 12:58 pm

I honestly prefer PCs anyway. Modding Rules!

Wilder

On March 30, 2008 at 6:45 pm

I read sometime back that MS was having a hell of a time turning a profit. I also remember it saying that serious repeted hardware failures forced MS to extend the warrenty by another year. So yeah I can see the consoles life is limited.

Averre

On March 30, 2008 at 9:46 pm

Horse, this same perdiction has been going on over and over for decades…if anything consoles will eventually completly dominate the video game market.

The arcade is basically a dead beast except for Japan, the PC gaming market has been on a slow decline for years and the only thing keeping it on life support is MMO’s…pretty much anything worth playing is multi-platform…and the games that were once PC only are going multi-platform.

Consoles aren’t going anywhere people.

dijital

On March 31, 2008 at 2:23 am

^^
Actually you will find many articles from people in the industry that will actually prove this article to be very true. Its also quite possible that Xbox 360 and PS3 could be the last of the consoles as the shift will move to PC’s. Most Console Gamers spend more time gaming on PC than they do on a console. PC technology other than super computers and movies and media evolve at an alarming rate because of GAMES. Consoles are getting smoked real bad in the anti-piracy front as there are many people modding wii’s and x360′s. The only console that is somewhat safe is the PS3 but even that isnt going to last long as blank Blu-Ray discs are steadily getting cheaper and eventually Blu-Ray burners will be as cheap as DVD burners are right now. If you are familiar with STEAM the platform that is used to distribute Half-Life and Valve games like Counter-Strike which at one point was the most played online game and is still heavily played today. The Steam distribution system is gaining ground faster than any video game retailer because for one you cant STEAL or PIRATE anything from STEAM and you dont need to manufacture any install discs or packaging and you dont need anyone in the factory to create those which cuts costs way down and allows the company to offer greater incentives to the end users by selling the game for a substantially reduced price and or offer extra bonuses just look at EPIC they are offering the complete UNREAL series for only $59.95 for every UNREAL game up till UT3 hows that for a good deal not to mention not having to keep discs and game boxes around the house only for some people to lose them.

Video Game Distribution is changing PC’s are changing. I dont expect to see console’s to stick around

Phil Migrowen

On March 31, 2008 at 5:38 am

This Yoyo’s name is “Sandy Duncan”? You’ve got to be kidding me! His parents must have hated him.