GTA IV May Steal Revenue From the Iron Man Movie?
Mike Hickey, the analyst who said Halo 3 was responsible for poor movie ticket sales (as opposed to the fact that it was mostly pure dreck like The Heartbreak Kid at the time), is now predicting the same thing will happen when GTA IV is released.
“We anticipate the video game release of GTA IV on April 29 could dampen the potential from Iron Man’s theatrical release on May 2,” Hickey said in a Wednesday note regarding Marvel Entertainment stock.
“The last significant video game release, Halo 3, generated over $300 million in sales from its first week in the market,” he added. “Halo 3 was released on just one platform, the Xbox 360, and attached nearly 50 percent of the installed base. GTA IV will be released on both the Xbox 360 and PS3, which have both significantly increased their installed bases since the release of Halo 3. A GTA IV 25 percent attach rate to a combined Xbox 360 and PS3 installed base at its April 29 release would imply 5.8 million units sold or roughly $360 million in retail sales the first week of the game’s release.”
Yes, because a movie with awesome special effects and superheroes has the exact same box office draw as a comedy remake starring Ben Stiller. More likely, I’d bet the people who buy GTA IV are going to take a couple hours away from the game to go see Iron Man and fulfill their nerd duties. Or they might bring their consoles into the theater and do both at the same time.
Via Next Gen