GTA V To Sell 15m At Launch, Says Analyst Just Making Stuff Up
I’m pretty sure that the power system at Rockstar Games HQ runs on concentrated speculation. Why else would the company refuse to confirm a launch date for a game everyone knows is probably coming out in October, if not to spark a constant, steady stream of analysts and industry observers claiming to have unlocked the Da Vinci Code of gaming? Rockstar must therefore employ PhD level intellects for the project of generating hype, because their total silence on the game has done nothing but get analyst after analyst to make unfounded, yet authoritatively-issued, statements about the future of the long awaited Grand Theft Auto V.
Enter Analyst firm Sterne Agee. Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia released a statement to the press on Friday making some rather bold claims about the game’s prospects for success. He expects GTA V to sell about 14 million copies during the initial launch window. Granted, that isn’t an insane number. GTA IV sold about 13 million during its first year, and in the 4 years since launching in 2008 has sold about 20 million copies. That is similar to the astonishing success of GTA games of the previous generation, and is almost certain to bear out.
Bhatia also agrees with Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz, that GTA V will be coming out in early 2013. This prediction is based on Take-Two’s financial predictions for their current fiscal year (which ends March 31, 2013); those predictions include approximately 450 million in revenues from Rockstar games that aren’t actually itemized in the statement. The obvious conclusion is that they’re assuming a GTA V release in the current fiscal year and, maddeningly, are refusing to announce it just yet.
I’m not a seasoned analyst, but I’ll say what I always say when these guys predict an early 2013 release date for GTA V: Rockstar’s corporate parent Take-Two has all but erected a giant billboard over October, 2012 that says INSERT GTA V HERE. This isn’t speculation, it’s fact. They’ve moved around not one but two major games, and put them squarely in the early-2013 window. It seems absurd to even consider that Take-Two would want Grand Theft Auto V to directly compete with BioShock 3. Which is why, until Rockstar finally gets off their ass and confirms the launch date, my money is squarely on october 23, 2012.