Pachter Predicts 11% Drop in Console Game Sales for December Report

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter predicts the December sales report that the NPD Group will release this Thursday will note a decline of 11 percent in console software sales “due to continuing gamer fatigue and sustained Nintendo weakness.”

According to Pachter, Black Ops 2′s nearly 20 percent year-over-year sales dip and Halo 4 failing to meet “lofty expectations” are evidence of this fatigue. Nintendo’s “underwhelming launch” for Wii U and “continued weakness” in general for the company have also been major contributors to the 11% decline; Pachter is predicting that 675,000 Wii U units were sold at US retail in its second month (up 59 percent month-over-month) with a “very low” software attach rate of close to one title per hardware unit.

Pachter believes 2013 will bring better luck to the industry, with titles like Dead Space 3, BioShock Infinite and GTA V driving sales, but the full recovery is expected to happen in 2014, when the next-gen consoles launch. “Publishers will likely plan an unprecedented number of new IP launches in the first two years of the cycle, providing relief from gamer fatigue,” says Pachter.


via GI International

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2 Comments on Pachter Predicts 11% Drop in Console Game Sales for December Report

SweetPea

On January 9, 2013 at 7:27 am

“A big AAA title will win this years Game of the Year award at the VGAs, like AC3. Walking Dead doesn’t have a chance. Not a chance.”
-Michael Pachter

It won over 50 GOTY awards. That’s how reliable Pachter is.

Kevin

On January 9, 2013 at 9:49 am

I’m skeptical 2013 will bring a renewal, or that 2014 will neccessarily be better. If 2013 is weak, the next gen stuff will have to be REALLY good. Otherwise, the gaming bubble of the past 6 years or so will finally burst