Posted on May 12, 2008,

Pachter Predicts: PS3 Beat 360 in April

gtaiv2.jpgWelcome to the latest edition of Pachter Predicts, where Wedbush Morgan analyst and my sworn adversary Michael Pachter makes his predictions for the past month’s console sales here in the United States. For the second straight month, Pachter has predicted that the PlayStation 3 outsold the Xbox 360. (Although last month his prediction turned out wrong, as the 360 had a 5,000 unit edge over the PS3.)

Here are his predictions, with last month’s numbers in parentheses:

Wii: 600,000 (721,000)
PS3: 290,000 (257,000)
Xbox 360: 275,000 (262,000)
PS2: 160,000 (216,000)
DS: 550,000 (698,000)
PSP: 235,000 (297,000)

If Pachter turns out to be right, it looks like the 360 and PS3 won’t have seen a major boost in sales as many have thought they would. He attributes his predicted higher sales of the DS and Wii to their greater availability.

As for Grand Theft Auto IV, he expects it to have sold 3.3 million units in its first six days in the US alone, and also notes that he expects 20 games to have cracked the 100,000 unit mark in April, compared with only nine last year.

Those of you who still find yourself looking for a Wii, Pachter thinks that situation might be soon resolving itself: “We believe that Nintendo has diverted a significant portion of its available supply to Europe since April 2007, as the weakening dollar has made US sales less profitable for the company… We expect the supply situation will begin to improve over the next several months. We expect a surge in supply in the US for Wii Fit’s May 21 launch here, and believe we could see as many as 900,000 Wii units show up at retail this month (May).”

via Next Gen

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8 Comments on Pachter Predicts: PS3 Beat 360 in April


On May 12, 2008 at 11:32 am

I predict that my daddy will beat up your daddy this month…. :roll:

This guy was wrong last month….why should I believe anything he says this month?

Exactly how many years of school do I have to have before I can make outlandish predictions that people will believe to be credible? Or do I just have to know people?

Go Marlins!!!!

Norbit's Bro

On May 12, 2008 at 11:44 am

PS3 is gna beat 360 anyway lol.

End Of 360 is failure.


On May 12, 2008 at 12:20 pm

Well the game was only on sale for 2 days in April


On May 12, 2008 at 12:38 pm

Hmm, looks like he pulled a flip flop again. Whoa, what happened to his 500k PS3 prediction early on? The margin is much closer as well. Anyhow this seems eerily similar to last month. Where he called it for the PS3 which turned out to be the incorrect, but decided he wanted to change his prediction mid-week hehe. I’m not sure what is going on with his predictions lately because they really are all over the place. CYA maybe the name of the game especially with his PS3 predictions since launch. I think even he is starting to doubt it as well, which is saying a lot. His “Upgrade Theory” seems to really be theory full of holes at this point. Anyhow, NPD should be great this month. At least he has predicted correctly GTA IV 360 will rule the month.


On May 12, 2008 at 1:50 pm

“At least he has predicted correctly GTA IV 360 will rule the month.”

Not exactly a difficult prediction seeing as the 360 has over double the US install base of the PS3

Microsoft’s boast that they outsold the PS3 version by 2:1 turned out to be incorrect though.


On May 12, 2008 at 2:08 pm

Well, that is the whole point right. Yea, that is a pretty easy prediction there for em, right, right. Anyhow, MS said there channel checking stated 60%+. No one can say at this point that 2 to 1 is incorrect because if they hit 65% they would indeed hit there mark. NPD on Thursday will reflect that one way or another for week 1. While were on it the latest figures today from the UK state that the 360 extended it’s margin there for GTA IV to 62% for the week. This will only grow over time due to the 360 lead there. As for the US, the lead will grow by even more here because of the substantial HW base lead here.


On May 12, 2008 at 4:13 pm

They said they had outsold the PS3 version by 2:1. In case you were unaware a 65/35 split is not 2:1 so even if they had that they would still have been wrong to say 2:1.

BTW all news coming from the EU points that the PS3 version outsold the 360. The PS3 version is at the top of nearly all the EU charts.

You can expect the PS3 to start shifting a lot more units now because the GTA4 bundles are starting to be released.


On May 12, 2008 at 7:49 pm

It can sell consoles all it wants, where are the games and the super good PSN?

i bought a 60 GB ps3 a few days ago, i got it for a good price, but when i went to go online, its hurtin, and i honestly dont see any game i like that i cannot already get for the 360.

Im not saying this because of there is anything wrong with the PS3. its great. it just a Blu-ray player now for me. the online service dont compare to Xbox live. and after seeing PSN it just made Xbox live worth more. Honest to god where is the online factor? they have better improve it, or all my future purchases on a multi format game, will be for 360.

Any one can argue on what good games are coming for the PS3, yes theres lots, but most i want will be for the 360 and its Xbox live service is what makes me get it for the 360 over PS3. im just saying my oppinion so dont go fanboying i truly hope some good PS3 games i want come my way and PSN gives me a reason to get a PS3 version over the 360.