Take-Two Financial Predictions All But Confirm GTA V In 2012
In yet another sign that we are almost certainly looking at a fall release for GTA V, Take-Two released their financial projections for fiscal year 2013 on Tuesday, and it looks like they’re expecting a massive infusion of San Andreas money sometime in the next year.
Take-Two is predicting net revenues for fiscal year 2013 (lasting from April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2013) to land somewhere between $1.75 and $1.85 billion, 60% of which – about 1 billion – they predict will come from Rockstar releases. Cagily, the only Rockstar releases mentioned for fiscal year 2013 are Max Payne 3 and its associated DLC, which will supposedly bring in 300 million. An additional 150 million is predicted to come from back catalogue sales. Of course, that leaves 450 million in additional revenues completely unaccounted for.
That massive amount of unaccounted for revenues only make sense, analysts say, if GTA V sales are included. Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz put it plaintly: “We believe management could not provide this level of guidance with any degree of confidence if it did not anticipate shipping Grand Theft Auto V during FY13,” he said. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter offered similar sentiments. “Although management did not provide a release date or window for GTA V,” Pachter said, “its FY13 revenue guidance is unattainable without a huge seller from Rockstar.
Creutz believes that this gives a fairly clear picture of when to expect GTA V. “Take-Two’s announced line up of titles for FY13 was largely unchanged,” he said, “including continuing to resist announcing a release date for Grand Theft Auto V. We are modelling a ship date for Grand Theft Auto V in the last two weeks of March 2013.” Perhaps, but that doesn’t sound quite right to me. It needs to be noted that Take-Two has already created a huge hole in the holiday 2012 release schedule. XCOM has been pushed back from a late 2012 release date into sometime early in Take-Two’s 2014 fiscal year. BioShock Infinite, originally scheduled for October 16, has now been rescheduled to February 26, 2013.
Moving these two highly anticipated games dates that would directly compete with a GTA V release at the end of March, 2013, makes little sense. Take-Two isn’t going to want to compete with itself, even if each of these games are made by technically competitive subsidiaries. It seems more sensible that GTA V, assuming they ever get around to confirming a release date, will indeed drop during the holidays, and probably in October, just like all the rumors suggest.