Coronavirus? 18 replies

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Lindæl Advanced Member

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#1 10 months ago

Yesterday, someone in the Discord mentioned Coronavirus, which started a mini-discussion about it being in Oregon.


Well, you can track it in real time. Here is the map created by Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

Clicky here.


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MrFancypants Forum Administrator

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#2 10 months ago

Up to about 120 cases in Germany now with increasing numbers all over Europe. I'm curious to what length the governments in Europe will go; the Chinese were pretty strict in enforcing wide-spread quarantine and martial law. 

The impact on the economy should also be interesting; supply chains are so distributed that pretty much everyone is affected.




Lindæl Advanced Member

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#3 10 months ago

Not to mention how China makes all of the world's stuff. When the world's manufacturer is spreading pandemics, economies are sure to see a hit.


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Nemmerle Advanced Member

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#4 10 months ago

As I see it, there's not a great deal we can do. Those who can telecommute should, wash your darned hands, check that people you may be meeting haven't been to one of the countries with a higher rate of infection and refuse to meet with those who have or know someone who has.

At least according to what's coming out of government, it's fairly likely that this is going to continue to spread amongst the general population. I don't know how truthful that is of course, I can see motivations both ways in terms of telling people that it's a disaster or telling them that it's going to be fine. The virus itself will either kill you or not, and there's no treatment for it other than providing supportive interventions to the patient's normal bodily functioning. (e.g. ventilators for those struggling to breathe.) At the moment, all the motivation is on the side of infection control to try to limit how many people get sick with it at the same time, and consequently the strain on our medical services.




Lindæl Advanced Member

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#5 10 months ago

I had a quick Google at it. Apparently, SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) is caused by a coronavirus, and SARS is treatable by a medical professional. That tells me a cure does exist for at least that one strain of coronavirus. A few days ago, I saw a news article saying THIS outbreak has mutated into two other strains of coronavirus. So, my question is whether the SARS cure will have any affect, or if that can at least be uses as a basis to develop a cure for THIS outbreak.


That all said, self-preventative actions indeed will go a long way. In the first place, you should already be washing your hands as often as you can, but this just reinforces that wisdom. As for telecommuting and work from home, those have become popular subjects in the news this week. There was even a news story about NOT staying home, because employers are under no obligation to NOT fire you if you choose to stay home.


So, I guess you just do what you can, and accept what you cannot do. Until a cure is found, that is all we can do.


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Nemmerle Advanced Member

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#6 10 months ago
Posted by Lindæl

I had a quick Google at it. Apparently, SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) is caused by a coronavirus, and SARS is treatable by a medical professional. That tells me a cure does exist for at least that one strain of coronavirus. A few days ago, I saw a news article saying THIS outbreak has mutated into two other strains of coronavirus. So, my question is whether the SARS cure will have any affect, or if that can at least be uses as a basis to develop a cure for THIS outbreak.


That all said, self-preventative actions indeed will go a long way. In the first place, you should already be washing your hands as often as you can, but this just reinforces that wisdom. As for telecommuting and work from home, those have become popular subjects in the news this week. There was even a news story about NOT staying home, because employers are under no obligation to NOT fire you if you choose to stay home.

There's currently no cure for SARS. The treatment is supportive in nature.




MrFancypants Forum Administrator

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#7 10 months ago

There is a lot of media attention, but not a lot of writing on forecasts. Shouldn't there be a bunch of scientists from some sort of CDC with super-sophisticated simulations and statistical models showing us animated charts?




Nemmerle Advanced Member

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#8 10 months ago

In the short term, I suppose it'd just be something like:

nd+1 = nd + nd * average exposure * infection rate * (1- nd / pop-size)

In the longer term, I imagine there's a bunch of 'If X' involved, which doesn't play too well on TV.




Last edited by Nemmerle 10 months ago

MrFancypants Forum Administrator

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#9 10 months ago

It looks like the numbers have increased so quickly that tests will be limited to risk groups now. 


BTW I totally get all the virused-related introvert memes. 


Also, I have recently become slightly addicated to low-transaction cost stock trading apps.




Nemmerle Advanced Member

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#10 9 months ago

Welp, UK gov is bringing in the lockdown element of things. Kinda knew when they delayed the usual briefing today.

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They haven't as far as I know, defined what absolutely necessary means at this point. Like, yeah, there are things within the next seven days where if I'm not in the office we'll lose £10-12k, simply because the business hasn't made particular affordances for those tasks to be done elsewhere, but at the same time no-one's going to die if I'm not there.




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