Is this incredibly hot summer evidence of global warming? 9 replies

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FileTrekker Super Administrator

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#1 2 years ago

So, sounds like a stupid question but for much of Europe, and certainly the UK, the weather has been much hotter than usual for much longer spells, with rare breaks of rain inbetween. This is very odd for us, albeit I know common in other parts of the world before you point it out Jeff....

But how do we know this isn't a sign of global warming? Is this the new norm? Or is it just a freak, one-off weather occurance?


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Plokite_Wolf Advanced Member

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#2 2 years ago

Weather strongly fluctuates in recent years.

About five years ago, here in the south of Croatia we had an outright scorching summer where it went to 40°C in the day and no less than 30°C in the night, with steam concentrations that would make Valve's lawyers angry.

The next few summers were quite mild. Last year I only had to turn on my fan less than 10 times.

Some winters were mild, but this year we actually had snow in 3 separate days (it was fucking MARCH) which if it isn't a first, it's a first in a very long time.


Global warming, peoples.





Lindæl Forum Moderator

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#3 2 years ago

* When I was a child, we had snow every winter.  We had snow days from school. We built snowmen, snow forts, went sledding. One year, snow came in October, and lasted halfway through April. The snow that year was deeper than I was tall at the time, so I built tunnels through the snow.


Now?

* Winter of 2016, we had snow from November all the way until nearly April.

* Winter of 2017, we actually had 70f/21c weather in December, DECEMBER.


As for summers?

* July of 2016, I was at an air show in lovely 80f/27c weather. July of 2017, that same air show was in 100f/38c weather. July of this year, the weather is even hotter, so I did not even bother going to that air show.


I can clearly see a pattern of getting even hotter.


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Serio Advanced Member

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#4 2 years ago

This is quite likely an effect of global warming, yes. Make no mistake, global warming means that the planet will heat up, but the effects won't just be warmer summers. It's also going to result in stronger, more unpredictable storms, mass flooding, harsh and extreme winters, and as the global temperature raises, we'll see heatwaves become increasingly common. For a long time, we could only see the effects on paper and in the data collected. Now we're beginning to see the effects in earnest. 


Welcome to the anthropocene, people. This is the new normal.




Superfluous Curmudgeon Advanced Member

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#5 2 years ago

Weather certainly has been increasingly volatile in recent years. Whether this is a result of human's footprint on the environment or some natural cycle I don't know.




Lindæl Forum Moderator

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#6 2 years ago

Nowadays, when someone mentions snow, I have only one thing to say. What is snow?


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BeIthagor

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#7 2 years ago

I blame it on countries outside of Europe that pollute much much more than Europe does. Their smog is finally reaching the atmosphere near Europe, (cause it doesn't just go straight up, there is wind.) Won't name any specific countries though.




Last edited by BeIthagor 2 years ago

Mr. Matt Advanced Member

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#8 2 years ago

No. Or at least, not on its own.

Weather =/= climate.

For instance, the tabloids like to throw that old "coldest weather on record - SO MUCH FOR GLOBAL WARMING" chesnut out there every year, but aside from missing the point entirely, short-term weather conditions aren't really what it's about.

Climate change is measured over the long term, holistically. It deals with trends. Extraordinary weather events, like heat waves that cause a disproportionate number of bright red British people, can be symptomatic of climate change, if they increase in frequency and become more extreme over the years, and roughly correlate with the increases in global temperature (which they are/do), but individually they're just evidence of extraordinary weather events. Those have always happened and they always will. Even if we were able to reverse the effects of climate change entirely, you'd still occasionally get some summers where all British people appeared to be wearing red paint on their faces and arms.

Climate change is primarily evidenced by an overall increase in global temperatures over the last hundred years or so, strongly correlating with increased human industrial activity. The results of that can, as mentioned, include extreme weather conditions, but those can't be judged by themselves. NASA has a handy guide of evidence for climate change. Extreme weather is in there, but it's a long-term, growing trend of such that they're interested in, not individual events.




Last edited by Mr. Matt 2 years ago

Serio Advanced Member

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#9 2 years ago

They are increasing in frequency. We have recorded temperatures for 144 years, yet of the five hottest years, only one of them is before the turn of the 21st century. 


Here's another interesting - potentially unrelated - bit. If you look at the number of Atlantic hurricanes, you'll see there was a steady pattern for a number of years. You'd have less than ten, then you'd have two or three years with ten or more, then less again for a few years. But since the 1980s, the number has rarely dropped under the tens, in some cases almost reaching thirty. There may be other factors, but it's not a pleasant thought.




JimmyB76 Files Moderator

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#10 2 years ago
Posted by Serio

If you look at the number of Atlantic hurricanes, you'll see there was a steady pattern for a number of years. You'd have less than ten, then you'd have two or three years with ten or more, then less again for a few years. But since the 1980s, the number has rarely dropped under the tens, in some cases almost reaching thirty. There may be other factors, but it's not a pleasant thought.


this is true - and in the last decade or so, there have been astonishing increase of Categories 3, 4 and 5; unprecedented...
in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans (i assume the Indian and Australian waters) and places (like Australia) have had landfalls where pretty much none have gone...