2012 Greek Elections 6 replies

Please wait...

Commissar MercZ

Notable Loser

300,005 XP

29th January 2005

0 Uploads

27,113 Posts

0 Threads

#1 6 years ago

Greeks are also holding important elections today, along with the Serbians and French, which may have ramifications for the Eurozone at large. The elections were scheduled after the resignation of the last prime minister from PASOK, George Papandreou, late last year.

Greece exit polls project no majority win - Europe - Al Jazeera English

201256171113457734_20.jpg Alexis Tsipras, leader of the leftist party SYRIZA, which opposes European-IMF reforms, has seen support for his party increase three-fold since 2009 [AFP]

Exit polls have projected that the Greece's former majority social party has been pushed down to third place in the country's parliamentary elections, with no definitive front-runner and no party gaining enough votes to form a government.

The left-wing Pasok party saw its score fall to 14-17 per cent from 43.9 per cent on Sunday, according to the poll, commissioned by four major television stations and carried out by three polling agencies.

The conservative New Democracy party (ND) mustered the most votes with 17-20 per cent of the vote, but it was not sufficient to give it absolute majority and was down from 33.5 per cent at the 2009 election.

Al AJazeera's Barnaby Phillips, reporting from Athens, said: "On the face of it, this seems like massive repudiation of Greece's political establishment." While the two pro-austerity parties suffered major losses, the leftist Syriza party, which opposed European Union-IMF reforms, jumped to second place after scoring 15.5-18.5 per cent of the vote, up from 4.6 per cent three years ago.

Golden Dawn, a neo-Nazi party, was also set to enter parliament for the first time in nearly 40 years, notching up 6-8 per cent of the vote.

The communist KKE party scored 7.5-9.5 percent, compared to 7.5 per cent in 2009, the exit polls showed.

Both Pasok and ND have said they want the "troika" of the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to cut Greece more slack in their two bailout deals worth $314b.

But with voters angry at the austerity cuts demanded in response, many of the smaller parties, including Syriza, want to put an end to the agreements, while KKE wants Greece to leave the eurozone.

Voters angered by two years of austerity measures in return for the bailouts have deserted the main parties in massive numbers, turning instead to a series of smaller parties.

If no party wins enough votes to form a government, whichever party wins the most votes will have to seek a coalition with rivals. The first party will have three days in which to conduct coalition negotiations.

If it fails, the mandate will go to the second party for a further three days, and then on to the third party.

If no coalition emerges, then the country will have to go to another election, a prospect which has alarmed Greece's international creditors.

Greece must take yet more austerity measures next month to ensure it meets fiscal targets laid out in its international bailout and to ensure the rescue loan funds keep flowing.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

As expected (or feared, for some), the two mainstream parties, PASOK (Centre-left social democrat) and ND/New Democracy (Centre-right, conservative) ended up taking losses themselves. As things stand both PASOK and ND appear to have been hit hard in the elections due to their pro-austerity stances. Estimates currently place ND with some 19-20% votes at the most, almost half of what it got in the last elections. PASOK has gone to about 13-16%, a significant decline from its 2008 results of 40%.

The parties that gained from the collapse of the mainstream, pro-austerity groups come from both ends of the political spectrum. The Communist Party (KKE) has netted 9%, but its rival SYRIZA has benefited the most, with some projections indicating some 16% of the votes, meaning it went over PASOK. This surprised earlier projections which expected the group to only score slightly better than KKE in even the most generous projections. As such SYRIZA is now the second largest party in parliament, behind ND.

The far-right also picked up some votes, though the original far-right group (ultranationalist LAOS) appears to have failed to meet the 5% mark and thus will lose all the seats it holds. The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn though has managed to meet the threshold, with giving them 6%-8% of votes. This will be the first time that such a nationalist and fringe group had managed to enter parliament since the military junta some 40 years ago. Another right wing group, "Independent Greeks" (ANEL), is projected to have gotten 8%-10%.

As things stand ND ends up with a plurality of votes, but no single group really has a dominant presence to have the 'mandate' to form government, meaning there'll be a lot of jockeying for agreements to form some sort of coalition government. But with tensions as they are over the austerity deals, it'll be hard to reach a consensus.

I'll return with more exact results as they come in.

Edit: Some of the Greek media results

singular.jpgsingular_1.jpg

This would translate as

ND = 19,2% and 109 MP positions SYRIZA = 16,3% and 50 MP positions PASOK = 13,6% and 42 MP positions Independent Greeks = 10,5% and 32 MP positions KKE = 8,5% and 26 MP positions Golden Dawn = 7% and 22 MP positions DIMAR (Democratic Left) = 6% and 19 MP positions

_______________________________ Did not meet 5% threshold

Ecologists = 2,9% LAOS = 2,9% Dimokratiki Simmachia = 2,7% Creation! Again = 2,1% Action = 1,7% ANTARSYA = 1,2% Social Symphony = 1%




MrFancypants Forum Admin

The Bad

216,579 XP

7th December 2003

0 Uploads

19,982 Posts

6 Threads

#2 6 years ago

History repeats itself. Economic crisis followed by distribution of votes over many parties, radicals gain in popularity. If the crisis gets worse (which might happen as a result of this election) the radicals will become more popular and then the Greeks might end up with an authoritarian government again.




Commissar MercZ

Notable Loser

300,005 XP

29th January 2005

0 Uploads

27,113 Posts

0 Threads

#3 6 years ago
MrFancypants;5637810History repeats itself. Economic crisis followed by distribution of votes over many parties, radicals gain in popularity. If the crisis gets worse (which might happen as a result of this election) the radicals will become more popular and then the Greeks might end up with an authoritarian government again.

The danger of this is most apparent with Golden Dawn, with some of the members being involved in the previous military junta. It will depend more on how quickly they might pull out of the slump here, and how the EU responds to member nations that do not cooperate with them, either due to deadlock or the unwillingness of major parties there.

As things stand the pro-EU and pro-austerity stances of PASOK and ND took a drubbing.

Currently, from this source here, with 80% or so of votes counted, the Greeks are reporting the results as.

y2.pngNew Democracy, 110 MPs (19.40 %) y4.pngSYRIZA 51 MPs (16.49%) y1.pngPASOK 41 MPs (13,47%) y57.pngALEC 32 MPs (10,51%) y3.pngKKE 26 MPs (8,38%) y41.pngGolden Dawn 21 MPs (6.90%) y56.pngDIMAR 19 Mps (6.06 %)

_______________________ Did not meet threshold

y28.pngGreens 2.89 % y16.pngLAOS 2.87 % y58.pngDemocratic Alliance 2.58 %

Turnout is reported at 64%.

There's also another version of this on The Guardian, which is more interactive and of course accessible for those of you who speak English, but it doesn't give the projected MPs, only percentages.




Commissar MercZ

Notable Loser

300,005 XP

29th January 2005

0 Uploads

27,113 Posts

0 Threads

#4 6 years ago

Just some clarification here- you may be wondering why the ND party has so much more seats than the second place SYRIZA while only having maybe 3% points more. In the Greek election system, the party that ends up with the most votes gets the 50 bonus seats in the parliament.

The results are now completely counted. The final count reflect this- it's not too big a change from the earlier count, with only a couple seats shuffled around.

New Democracy, 108 MPs (18.85 %) SYRIZA 52 MPs (16.78%) PASOK 41 MPs (13.18%) ALEC 33 MPs (10.60%) KKE 26 MPs (8.48%) Golden Dawn 21 MPs (6.97%) DIMAR 19 Mps (6.11 %)

_______________________ Did not meet threshold

Greens 2.93 % LAOS 2.90 % Democratic Alliance 2.55 %

So what will be the step forward? I'm not entirely sure, but it's obvious that ND will try to make a broad coalition cabinet of those parties that are willing to work with the EU and continuing to impose unpopular austerity.

So for sure I can see PASOK entering into a "government of national salvation" (as it's being called) with ND, but they would still need more partners as that would be below the 150 needed for a majority in parliament, only having 149 (!).

Beyond that all the other parties involved have been campaigned heavily against austerity and the government's recent actions. So all the parties save for ND and PASOK are essentially "anti-austerity" in some form. This includes splits from ND (ANEL) and PASOK (DIMAR), as well as SYRZIA, KKE, and neo-Nazi Golden Dawn.

The only "consensus" on a major issue the Greeks have though is that, except for the KKE and Golden Dawn, all the other parties are in favor of staying within the EU.

So I guess with that in mind, either the government is going to have to make concessions on austerity, which will undoubtedly get the Troika angry, or hope that some defectors might come from other groups that would be willing to cooperate with them (but undoubtedly lose their seats later from angry constituents). Worst case scenario would be another round of elections being called.




Rikupsoni

Victim of Forgotten HopeForum bystander

50 XP

26th April 2004

0 Uploads

3,047 Posts

0 Threads

#5 6 years ago
MrFancypants;5637810History repeats itself. Economic crisis followed by distribution of votes over many parties, radicals gain in popularity. If the crisis gets worse (which might happen as a result of this election) the radicals will become more popular and then the Greeks might end up with an authoritarian government again.

It was seen 2 years ago already that when the strict austerity measures hit Greece, there will be no political will to push them through. Greece should have been shown the door out of the Eurozone, but the euro-elite was too proud to admit a defeat.

Greece will not pass the austerity measures. 1) Greece runs out of money, other Eurozone countries won't give new packages anymore 2) Greece can't fund its banks, they run out money -> people will withdraw their money from the banks in panic 3) The banks can't do transfers to abroad and can't pay debts, the European Central Bank has to say no 4) Greece is forced out of the Euro and will create their own currency

This was already known a long time ago that Greeks will never support radical saving measures.

But, in the mean time Germany and France passed new packages of billions of Euros from AAA countries like the Netherlands and Finland. Yes, the private losses of German and French banks were socialized to other European countries. Absolutely disgusting. :thumbsdown:




Rikupsoni

Victim of Forgotten HopeForum bystander

50 XP

26th April 2004

0 Uploads

3,047 Posts

0 Threads

#6 6 years ago

BBC News - New Greek elections as coalition talks fail - Venizelos

Greece will have new elections as they failed to find a coalition.

In the mean time, Jean-Claude Juncker said that the Euro leaders didn't even discuss the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro. Honestly, how ignorant they can be of most economists' estimations? That probability just got a lot higher again with these new elections.

According to Capital Economics, Greece will run out of money in a month and then can't pay wages or social service anymore.




MrFancypants Forum Admin

The Bad

216,579 XP

7th December 2003

0 Uploads

19,982 Posts

6 Threads

#7 6 years ago

Rikupsoni;5639893BBC News - New Greek elections as coalition talks fail - Venizelos

Greece will have new elections as they failed to find a coalition.

In the mean time, Jean-Claude Juncker said that the Euro leaders didn't even discuss the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro. Honestly, how ignorant they can be of most economists' estimations? That probability just got a lot higher again with these new elections.

According to Capital Economics, Greece will run out of money in a month and then can't pay wages or social service anymore.

Sunk costs. Regardless of how bad things get, we're in for a penny, in for a pound now, or so it seems.