Egyptian Elections 5 replies

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Commissar MercZ

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#1 6 years ago

Egyptians went to the polls today, the beginning of a phased election cycle that will last into January 2012. These are determined by locale in order to better manage what will probably prove to be a chaotic process due to the population density of Egypt and the reliance on more traditional voting methods as opposed to electronic.

Like their counterparts in Tunisia, the Muslim Brotherhood-backed Justice and Freedom Party is forecasted to win a plurality of votes at around a third. The MB's appeal has been built up over the years especially in the impoverished regions of Egypt- again as a reminder this is a country where it's estimated that at least 40% live in conditions of poverty- where the MB has run various charitable operations in healthcare, education, jobs, housing, foods, etc. that has established them as a party. MB, like other Islam-based groups, gets funding and aid from peninsula kingdoms.

Like the elections in Tunisia, it'll be a polarizing one due to the divergent interests of the groups involved. However at the foremost concern for many Egyptians, like the Tunisians before them, is the economy. The country under the Mubarak government pursued economic plans built to please investors and business owners, to the point that much of the country was essentially reduced to sweatshop labor and informal means of business to get by. Much of the poor electorate will look to groups they think will improve their condition within the society, such as minimum wage. With the MB's presence in charity programs, they are in position most to appear to be the ones who are able to go through with this- compare this to socialist and liberal groupings who also promise similar things but have nothing to go by but their words.

Of course there are still people protesting in Tahrir Square as they perceive the military will prevent the parliament from having any meaningful power. There is also concerns that the MB might serve as a means to 'preserve' Egypt's economic role in the world and diffuse the anger of the masses. Their relationship to the military regime has mostly been 'warm', with the MB not participating in many rallies, or at lease telling their supporters not to participate in them.

This is a useful chart I found on The Arabist with a chart of groups relative to one another. It also shows the electoral blocks they are going to run under.

Spoiler: Show

Map_Egypt_Parties_17-11-2011.png

And a pdf document with descriptions of the parties.

This is a chart concerning the positions of the party towards a "National Unity Government" (NUG) and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). This is basically whether or not they agree with the military junta over the means to 'transition' to civilian government.

tahrir2.png?

We won't get full results for some time, but the turn out is pretty strong, at least in comparison to previous rigged elections for the NDP.




SeinfeldisKindaOk

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#2 6 years ago

So who would you vote for?




Commissar MercZ

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#3 6 years ago
Professor Dr. Scientist;5589285So who would you vote for?

Well, it would be easy if we did it by the ideology, but if I was an Egyptian I would go towards those preferably those with a secular position and those intent on removing the crony economy that has werecked Egypt. But again, the economy is the major issue on all of their minds, and they'll be looking at groups they perceive to be more 'sympathetic' to their plight.

Though I don't know enough about the parties themselves yet to see what, if any, role they had in the past, what they were doing in the uprising, and what they have been doing since then.

Some of these political figures have been dead as a rock since February. I remember when Mohamed ElBaradei was always mentioned in these articles as a potential 'contender' for president (if not a favorite by some western countries), but in the months since then he has done virtually nothing. Can't say I've really seen ElBaradei having a major role in anything since February.

Here are some more graphics summarizing it,

Spoiler: Show

The Arabist again had some stuff for the election. It shows two 'ballots' one for people to vote for two candidates individually out of a list of some 122. ballot-IC.jpg

And another by electoral blocks, bringing the number down to 16

ballot-PR.jpg

And Al-Jazeera with a graphic on how these elections are going to be rolled out, how the seats are determined, etc. 20111121101254982734_8.png




MrFancypants Forum Admin

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#4 6 years ago

So it seems that the Muslim Brotherhood is leading, followed by the "An Nur" party. Moderate islamists and radical islamists, respectively.

This is disappointing as the liberal Egyptians who were at the center of the revolution won't have much (if any) influence in the new government.




Commissar MercZ

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#5 6 years ago

MrFancypants;5590436So it seems that the Muslim Brotherhood is leading, followed by the "An Nur" party. Moderate islamists and radical islamists, respectively.

This is disappointing as the liberal Egyptians who were at the center of the revolution won't have much (if any) influence in the new government.

That's really a result of both their lack of organization as well as their reputability. The MB's grouping, the Freedom and Justice Party, gets the reputation of having actually 'done' something for the people on the street level- charity essentially- where as the other parties can't hope to hold a candle to that. Again, with the economy on most of these people's minds, they're going to look for parties that might be able to improve or change that. Poverty and working conditions were bad as they were, and the economy's instability in the past months hasn't made that any better.

The problem of course is the funding, which probably does come from the peninsula kingdoms, more specifically Saudi Arabia. And considering the close relationship that nation enjoyed with the Mubarak government, this is again a means to ensure the essential 'structure' of Egypt will remain unchanged, even if the surface appears to do so.

But if that's the way the polls go, that's the way they'll go. As far as I'm concerned there's nothing 'wrong' with those results as long as it goes with what the populace is moving with. That is preferable to the 'managed', or rather rigged, elections that Mubarak ran for the entirety of his rule to keep his cronyism going.

What matters now is if the military will recognize this and acknowledge results, or continue to grip to power in order to maintain their position they've had for much of Egypt's independent history. But again, considering the arrangement the military has enjoyed with the MB following January this'll keep them there.

The main thing that was surprising was that the salafist split off from the MB freedom and justice party- Nour- ended up getting the results they have so far. Unlike the main moderate branch this wing doesn't have the same ties to the military or concern for what it's more hardline policies might entail for others.

I await to see charges of irregularities and fraud though. Considering the tensions it's bound to come.




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#6 6 years ago

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