Election battles turn into street fights in Iran 63 replies

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Admiral Donutz Advanced Member

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#51 11 years ago
Mr. Pedantic;4925763There's also no guarantee that the government would come out of this on top. The Iranians had already deposed a dictatorship, I don't see any barrier to them doing it again if they really wanted.

Well that would have been the entire point of such an operation: to pretty much get rid off whatever opposition there is while also maintaining the trust and support of a large majority of the people. That way ensuring that the opposition won't grow further and poses a higher threat to your regime in the future.




Mr. Pedantic

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#52 11 years ago

But then by now this plan would have gone to shot anyway, because of the sheer number of Mousavi supporters who are up in arms.




Commissar MercZ

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#53 11 years ago

Mr. Pedantic;4925763There's also no guarantee that the government would come out of this on top. The Iranians had already deposed a dictatorship, I don't see any barrier to them doing it again if they really wanted.[/QUOTE]

Well, I think what's holding them back is the price in blood they'll have to pay. For the most part in the Iranian Revolution much of the old Iranian army was firmly loyal to the Shah and they created a bloodbath on the streets of major cities all across the country. But many things came into place then that allowed for such a revolt to overtake a modernized and loyal professional army which is not present currently. In fact, for the most part the Iranian Revolution was unique in the fact that it was able to do so with out a large mutiny in the military. Still today the revolution really puzzles people as to how it came to be the way it was, but regardless they paid a stiff toll in blood to make it succeed.

However it seems that currently the army is firmly behind the government, and any excuse of open revolt would simply give the Pasdar an open door to do what they've been doing in the Northwestern regions to the rest of Iran. The Pasdar would escalate things well beyond what the Shah's old armies did, and they'll have the entire Iran Army behind them to help out.

The other problem is that most of Mousavi's supporters are young folk. Few of them have been exposed to continuous resistance and I doubt many of them were old enough to fight in the Iran-Iraq War. When push comes to shove a lot of them might simply abandon it all together. They got the economic disparity and political oppression their ancestors had (who were just as young), but it just seems that they won't go. They've grown up in a generation where they've been copying the calls for "peace" that the youth have done elsewhere.

If they want to pull off something like this they would need to forge a United Front with other dissidents, but the fact that the Mousavi camp hasn't attempted to do so indicates to me that they're not confident in their ability to wage an internal resistance if they were able to unite the dissidents. Mousavi was around to see the blood which was shed the last time they overthrew the government. An entire generation which was virtually wiped out from the Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war, and it's clear they don't want another similar thing to happen to this generation. Part of the reason why the revolution ended up establishing such a hard-line state that it did was most of the youth who launched the revolution had their numbers cut down, and allowed an older generation to run things.

[QUOTE=Admiral Donutz;4925716]I've read of a theory that says that they may have rigged the vote in such an obvious way so that the reformers would bound nt to accept the results and demand justice, which in turn would allow the Irany garde (the name escapes me right now) and other powers including those of the current goverment to crush down the opposition, silencing many of the reformers and so on without losing support from the more conservative factions or those in between.

They could do this, but they'd be incredibly dense to do so. As Fancy said, they don't want to risk sanctions on their government. There's already a lobby movement acting to do so here in the United States to expand the current sanction the US has imposed on Iran and make other UN member states to do begin embargoes. Oh, and I believe the "guard" (I think you were saying guard) was the Pasdar I've been referring to many times.




Admiral Donutz Advanced Member

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#54 11 years ago

I meant the Revolutionary Guards (Revolutionaire Garde in Dutch hence my typo) or "Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution" (Sepáh e Pásdárán e Enqeláb e Eslámi) to be more correct, or Pasdar(an) as you refered to them.

But depending on how they are going to react to the current situation the international community or certain (western) contries may threaten or actually impose new sanctions. Them trying to silence the opposition with force because of a plot or them feeling genuinly threatend against expectations, would both bring that risk to them.




Sl4sh

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#55 11 years ago

Commissar MercZ;4924893 the Pasdar don't give a shit about collateral damage.

Excellent post.

But, I have to say one thing though. If there is one thing that I do know about the Iranian people, it is that no matter what faces them, they will continue doing what they think is right. Sure, the Pasdar are ruthless as shit, but Iranians will fight back 10 times harder, especially if spearheaded by the youth and students of Iran who have always been in the frontline of things. Right now, there are reports that the protesters are moving in groups of 20, so that if one of them gets shot, the other 19 will fight back and beat the shit of who ever fired the shot. Besides, if the Pasdar comes into the picture and starts extreme violance, the whole country will blow up and cause a massive riot nationwide that would eventually lead to a revolution.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Commissar MercZ again

bah...




emonkies

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#56 11 years ago

Ironic that the Iranian people overthrew one dictatorship to replace it with a just as oppressive a regime.

I dont think this will go on much longer. Within a day or two things are going to turn very ugly and people are going to start dying in numbers.




Sl4sh

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#57 11 years ago

Of course it was a dictatorship, it was monarchy...




NiteStryker

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#58 11 years ago

Anlushac11;4925919Ironic that the Iranian people overthrew one dictatorship to replace it with a just as oppressive a regime.

I dont think this will go on much longer. Within a day or two things are going to turn very ugly and people are going to start dying in numbers.

Agreed. And this time, the tank wont stop short of the 1 man blocking it.

I have a feeling tho that there will be alot of uproar, and thats it. Some protestors will die, everyone else will be scared, and then life will go on.




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#59 11 years ago

Well, Western Media is trying to make it look like the fall of the Soviet Union.

Personally, if this new regime did take over, who says its going to be better? Sure a couple more rights to Women, but otherwise its mostly just going "This guy (keep forgetting his name) is a dictator! OVERTHROW!" but otherwise he's not saying anything else. Let's not forget that it was the protesters first who got more violent, before that the Iranian government was doing better then the Americans did during the hippy movement, in the fact that they did not get violent. Now there just going all out, of course why shouldn't they? This was basiclly a government coup, let's not forget that the guy went around securing the impoverished vote, but personally, the only real way to see if it really was rigged, is to see the percentage of the population is in these green protests, because right now, its more like a kid playing a game, then losing, then saying "you cheated!" and trying to beat up the other kid for cheating, while having no proof that he did cheat.

I really get pissed when I was watching the CNN special though, they were making the Green movement look like the good guys, when there is truly "no" good guy in this case, it was more of a forced revolution making it ironiclly more like a dictatorship, wait until a foriegn nation or the U.N. makes an investigation on it or have a new election and have a foriegn nation count the votes (a neutral one though, one that can be trusted).




Commissar MercZ

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#60 11 years ago
Sl4sh;4925895 But, I have to say one thing though. If there is one thing that I do know about the Iranian people, it is that no matter what faces them, they will continue doing what they think is right. Sure, the Pasdar are ruthless as shit, but Iranians will fight back 10 times harder, especially if spearheaded by the youth and students of Iran who have always been in the frontline of things. Right now, there are reports that the protesters are moving in groups of 20, so that if one of them gets shot, the other 19 will fight back and beat the shit of who ever fired the shot. Besides, if the Pasdar comes into the picture and starts extreme violance, the whole country will blow up and cause a massive riot nationwide that would eventually lead to a revolution.

They will resist, but like I mentioned there's a number of issues plaguing the movement. Primarily lessons from the last revolution. As I mentioned the movement caused a lot of blood to be shed and wiped out the generation meant to guide Iran into the next. Mousavi is an older fellow who had sympathies with that generation (he served in the government during that time), and while he wants a struggle he wants to prevent the Iranians from using an excuse.

And say that somehow they launch a revolution. You'll have this inevitably pop up.

-Various left-wing factions inevitably forge a united front -More moderate factions of the Islamic Republic (Mousavi) -Reactionaries who want to return to the monarchy -Pasdar holdouts

And at the moment an unstable Iran would cause ALOT of shit that doesn't need to happen. Especially for American interests in Afghanistan.

There are some things that were similar between the two. In fact, if anything it would be easier to blow a revolution now than it was back then. The Shah's army was much more modernized and had the backing of the West behind it up until the end. There were a number of divisions which mutinied, but a ton more which patrolled the cities of Iran. Instead of the Pasdar, there was a secret police in Iran known as SAVAK which operated in a manner similar to the Gestapo. There was a lot of political dissidents arrested then, which helped preceptate the atmosphere for revolution.

Mousavi right now is doing his demonstrations in Tehran, which is the largest city and population chunk in the country. However to succeed in such a movement he either needs a fallout in the military or disturbances to blow out elsewhere in other large centers.

Because of the issues arising from this though, I believe Mousavi would rather put popular pressure on the government and hope the worst that'll be thrown at them is the police and riot guards.

I mentioned the case of Shivan Qaderi in my last post. This is what the Pasdar will do to you, and I think many of the Iranians have that at the back of their heads

http://www.iran.org/humanrights/torture-victim.htm (Graphic)