Election battles turn into street fights in Iran 63 replies

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Sl4sh

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#61 10 years ago
Commissar MercZ;4926153 And at the moment an unstable Iran would cause ALOT of shit that doesn't need to happen.

Yep, I've actually seen this first hand as I was at a rally in Toronto, where the left wing and the small pro-monarch had a little clash with each other. This will certainly a lot of disputes of when, lets say a revolution does indeed happen. The pro-manarchs aside, the real problem will the be communists who will return to Iran from exile during the Shah and the Islamic Republic era.

The Shah's army was much more modernized and had the backing of the West behind it up until the end. There were a number of divisions which mutinied, but a ton more which patrolled the cities of Iran.

One thing that I have to point out is that, even though there were some evidences of mutiny within the army, there wasn't much of push by the Shah to control the revolution. The Shah, after the revolution and in exile said it himself the main reason why he didn't respond to it was because he didn't want the blood of his people to spill, so he peacefully left the country.

However to succeed in such a movement he either needs a fallout in the military or disturbances to blow out elsewhere in other large centers.

There are some protests in other cities, but not to the scale as the one in Tehran. Remember, Tehran is the center of post secondary education in Iran, therefore the reason why you see so many students and intellectuals rioting there.

I mentioned the case of Shivan Qaderi in my last post. This is what the Pasdar will do to you, and I think many of the Iranians have that at the back of their heads

Saw that, and that is pretty brutal I must say. However, that was one man who was individually alone. Right now there are thousands out there rioting, whom are mainly split into groups in case something happens to one another so they may support the victim.




Commissar MercZ

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#62 10 years ago
Sl4sh;4927047Yep, I've actually seen this first hand as I was at a rally in Toronto, where the left wing and the small pro-monarch had a little clash with each other. This will certainly a lot of disputes of when, lets say a revolution does indeed happen. The pro-manarchs aside, the real problem will the be communists who will return to Iran from exile during the Shah and the Islamic Republic era.

Communists weren't really that strong of a force in Iran. They had some strength in the 1950s around but they disappeared off the radar after that. However, many of these Socialists who lived in Europe became associated with European methods of welfare states, and don't want to revert to the poverty which still hasn't been solved.

But yes, what you are referring to is correct. The nature of the shah has been mired in confused nostalgia, and has divided the political concensus there. For one thing, there'll still be social conservatives in full force, especially among the poor.

One thing that I have to point out is that, even though there were some evidences of mutiny within the army, there wasn't much of push by the Shah to control the revolution. The Shah, after the revolution and in exile said it himself the main reason why he didn't respond to it was because he didn't want the blood of his people to spill, so he peacefully left the country.

I doubt his sincerity. Where was that emotion when his citizens were starving on the streets while he dined with western dignarities? Where was this emotion when his soldiers were slaughtering Iranians on the street? They had shit like this going on around the clock for years. SAVAK had routinely been driving fear into the people, and the army was backing him up until most of them saw that he was a losing prospect. The people were none too pleased they couldn't bring him to justice.

The thing that didn't help the Shah was the armies loyalities were divided. Mind you, the Pahlavi family itself was installed by the military. Loyalty is hard to maintain after Reza Shah's removal from the throne, past his son providing money to the army- and he did so well with high end American weaponry. However, much of the army believed that the regime was indebted to them, and began to fracture. I believe at one point SAVAK may've imprisioned some of the army heads which furthered issues with the army. However, he still had enough left over to seriously cause damage.

There are some protests in other cities, but not to the scale as the one in Tehran. Remember, Tehran is the center of post secondary education in Iran, therefore the reason why you see so many students and intellectuals rioting there.

Well the other thing is that Tehran has a lot of the population concentrated there. However with out some unrest elsewhere, it's hard to increase the feeling of solidarty among the citizens. If it gets to the point that they feel like an enclave, they'll act like a cornered animal and cause issues.

Saw that, and that is pretty brutal I must say. However, that was one man who was individually alone. Right now there are thousands out there rioting, whom are mainly split into groups in case something happens to one another so they may support the victim.

There were crack downs all across that part of the country, various people disappeared. They just happened to have pictures of this one guy because they had him publicly executed (they did after all drag him around town). In the past two years they've been hanging people and breaking up protests, they just haven't gotten press coverage then because it couldn't

Mousavi's supporters know the power of mass media and are utilizing it to the max in order to prevent it from fading in to obscurity. Recall there were similar protests in Moldova a few months ago over the election there, and they also attempted to use social networking to spread it. A combination of condemnation of the protesters for vandalizing the parliament and protesting a somewhat fair election caused them to disappear.

Iran has the fact that there is a lot of questionable aspects to this election and a coordinated protest utilizing the power of mass media in an attempt to press both locally and internationally.

However, the people are dealing with police backed up by the Basij militia. They've suffered bad casualties and have attempted to martyr them (martyrs are a powerful force in any popular revolt). In particular, one victim, a woman named "Nadah", which has spread across the media well.

Some of the fruits of this combination of martyrizing victims and utilizing the mass media has begun to borne fruit. The world is taking notice and the central government is recognizing it as a problem. Some of the higher ups are recognizing this and can be seen by in-fighting in their parliament and among the clerics. I believe I read some where that family members of the former president Rasfanjani were arrested, and this might cause further divisions. On top of that, various opposition leaders have been arrested too, which might divide loyalties.

However, the moment they give the excuse for Pasdaran to come in, that's all over. This is why international powers are cautious approaching this situation, as they don't want the Pasadaran to enter in force around the country. Dontiz referred to this somewhat, but if it escalates, the Pasdaran can intervene under the guise of a national emergency and assert a stronger dictatorship to "safeguard" the revolution and in the end creating a far more troublesome militant state.

Really, one of the reasons why the people have gotten passionate about this is they know the Pasdaran have recovered from the losses they incurred from Iran-Iraq War and are ready to strike from the wings to reclaim the state they claim to protect. This election was the last chance for them to continue changes that people like Khatami had done, and potentially stymie their growth. It is now essentially a fight between reformists and the reactionary elements of the Pasdaran, with a lot of people getting caught up in this struggle.




Karst

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#63 10 years ago

Latest update: the Guardian council has admitted there were irregularities. Although it's not yet known weather there will be a meaningful recount, this announcement will likely put Khamenei under further pressure as many say he was too quick to announce Ahmadinejad's victory.

And, of course, protests are continuing undeterred. Al Jazeera English - Middle East - Iran council 'admits poll flaws'




Commissar MercZ

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#64 10 years ago

Yes, and there's been a protest outside of Tehran in the city of Tabriz.

But they've also got the attention of the Pasdar. I believe they're threatening to make good on their promise to restore order if it "escalates".

It also seems they want to try and expand ways of putting pressure on them. I believe they might try to call strikes on industries.