I'm too cool to Post
16th July 2003
Just like Hamas controls Gaza Hezbollah will now control Lebanon.
Hmm yes. Maybe Israel should blockade them too, and shoot up American ships that stray too close.;)
On a serious note this does show the true insanity of Israel's foreign policy. Accepting the Syrian's offers of a truce would have been a big step in cutting off Hezbollah's support from Iran. That opportunity came and gone, along with pretty much all of the other possible diplomatic solutions.
I wonder if they would be so aggressive if the American gravy train of weapons and money were to end.
Voice of joy and sunshine
26th May 2003
What would Israel gain from peace?
Thread title leaves out an important part- the pick isn't PM yet. What has happened is Hezbollah has been allowed to raise a candidate for the position of Prime Minister in its discussions with its partners in the March 8th Alliance. In the last elections Hezbollah was part of the "March 8th Alliance" and its "pick" was the Christian Maronite General Michel Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement. General Michel Aoun left the other block due to disagreements with Hariri's group.
In this Hezbollah has secured support to have the seat of PM in the event of a victory, as opposed to other ministries.
Lebanon's political system isn't straight forward as it is in other countries, since it is formed with the demands of its religious groups in mind, as Iraq is beginning to do with its ethnic divisions. According to what wikipedia says, it is essentially a troika between the three groups- the President comes from the Maronite Christian community, the PM comes from the Sunni Arabs, and the Speaker of Parliament comes from the Shi'as.
The pick Hezbollah (and the rest of the March 8th Alliance) has offered actually falls in line with this- he is a Sunni and has actually been PM once already during a brief period in 2005.
So Hezbollah would find it hard to implement their program in full because the system effectively bars what would probably be their strongest people- Shia's can not hold the position of PM. Never mind that that there are other factions in the March 14th Alliance they have to mind- Hezbollah by itself only holds 12 seats of the March 8th's 56/57 seats. And it's doubtful Hezbollah would have enough support to argue for a change in Lebanon's political structure to remove the religious representations in government and go to a more traditional parliamentary system. The closest they got in terms of ethnic-religious group is from Amal, and that isn't enough.
The current "pro-West" government of the March 14th Alliance has largely been under pressure from its opponents and within due to its actions regarding Israel and perception of Lebanon's national sovereignty being subverted for Israel's security. The election in 2009 was contested and appeared to give a good margin to the pro-West March 14th crew- 71 to March 8th's 57.
The major change that occurred was the second largest party in the March 8th Alliance- the Progressive Socialist Party which has support within the Druze community- left the alliance due to disagreements over the approach to Israel due to the PSP's historical close relation with the PLO. This took 11 seats away from March 14th moving them down to a shaky 60 against March 8th's 57.
The PSP then proceeded to throw their support behind Hezbollah, who they had formerly been on negative terms with after 2005. Hell in 2008 there was street fighting that involved PSP and Hezbollah fighting each other. Yet somehow the overriding anger over Israel was big enough to change things. It's this aspect that is mainly of concern to the March 14th Alliance, because at this juncture the PSP is essentially a king maker.
There was also the recent action by Hezbollah itself when they withdrew their ministers after the UN began to implicate them in the Hariri investigation which they had disagreements with. It's important to remember that Hezbollah draws support from Shi'a communities, particularly those in the south of Lebanon, and that region bore the brunt of Israel's occupation of Lebanon as well as the invasion in 2006. People who have lost family in there and driven into grinding economic poverty are much more passionate about the issue than those who haven't been as affected in that country, say in its northern parts.
What will be the show down for the pro-West factions is if they can get out of the grave they dug themselves and pose a realistic challenge to the other block and address the issues they've been facing from the electorate. However the fear-mongering that works in the west about Hezbollah and Islamic radicalism does not work in the same way in the Middle-East. Like any where else there there will be a lot of wheeling and dealing when time to form the government comes.
24th January 2011
Too much media garbage...I never swallow everything I read by the media. I think the U.S. uses indirect support for these groups to gain power so they can later either use them as a scare like the USSR during the 60s and onward, or/and use them to keep our attention away from other goals they are trying to reach...there's always some hidden crap with the media and USA pointing fingers and trying to scare us.
Nemmerle;5459436What would Israel gain from peace?
But then again, Israel isn't the first society to exhibit suicidal behavior.
Hariri failed and Mikati has been chosen as the new PM. Hariri's supporters are on the streets making their anger known. What we see now is the cabinet make up and more immediately if they choose to cooperate with the UN investigation any longer.
PSP really swung it in favor of Hezbollah and the March 8th parties. Syria would be pleased to have a more friendly figure as PM too as would Iran.
I'm too cool to Post
16th July 2003
The guy is a Hezbollah puppet, Hezbollah is supported, trained, supplied, and financed by Iran. How could Iran not be happy with the PM?
Hezbollah has proven they can withstand the full brunt of an IDF invasion. There's nothing like a show of strength to gain support.
Hariri's supporters have been on the streets demonstrating against the appointment. However with the events in Egypt their attempt for media attention has failed. They styled it a "Day of Rage" but afaik it seems to have petered out for the moment. May be regrouping.