[US] Iowa Republican Primaries 16 replies

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Commissar MercZ

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#1 6 years ago

Since I have not much to make threads off or at least other users, I guess I'll jump on this topic. The Iowa primaries in the Republican primaries are big for the GOP strategists- not so much due to the amount of delegates (Iowa only having 28 delegates. Compare that to more populated states in the south or midwest)- but rather due to being the first primary they think will give them the initial momentum. I will note however that in 2008 the winner of the Iowa primaries was Mike Huckabee- the presidential ticket that year went to McCain of course.

Currently from the different sites, we seem to be having Romney and Santorum neck and neck at 24% (Santorum is ahead narrowly so far) and Ron Paul following with 22%. This is with about 48% of votes counted.

Santorum's result is probably the most surprising if this continues. Newt Gingritch entered into Iowa the favorite, but was overtaken by Romney and later Paul in the opinion polls. Rick Santorum's results so far is the biggest deviation from those polls. Gingrich is at 13%, Perry 10%, Bachman at 6%, and Huntsman at 1%.

Next stop for the peanut gallery is the New Hampshire primaries on January 10th. New Hampshire was penalized by the RNC however for moving its date earlier along with a number of other states, downgrading its delegates from 23 to 12.




Guest

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#2 6 years ago

People were betting on Ron for the libertarian vote, but it's anyone's guess. I like some of Ron Paul's Ideas, but not much from the others. As they seem like front men for someone else.




Deus Oblivionis

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#3 6 years ago

Frankly my predictions for the Iowa primaries go something like this:

Santorum wins Iowa. Romney does his best, but loses.


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Warborg

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#4 6 years ago

Personally, I like Cain, Bachmann and Perry the best.

Cain is out... seems Bachmann has announced she's out too. Perry is close to being out.

Romney is my least favorite... although outside of Cain, I believe he has the best chance of beating Obama.

Just started to read up on Santorum...he sounds pretty good




Adrian Ţrumpeş Forum Mod

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#5 6 years ago

Warborg;5598428Personally, I like Cain, Bachmann and Perry the best.

Cain is out... seems Bachmann has announced she's out too. Perry is close to being out.

Romney is my least favorite... although outside of Cain, I believe he has the best chance of beating Obama.

Just started to read up on Santorum...he sounds pretty good

????????


"I'd shush her zephyr." ~ Zephyr.



Commissar MercZ

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#6 6 years ago

Hermann Cain didn't factor into these primaries- he dropped out before these even begin. I'm not sure if he'll be able to be a 'kingmaker' afterwards. That all depends on how the other runners views the mess around his personal life and whether they want to invite media over that.

Bachman's leaving wasn't a surprise to me. She, like Perry, rode on the Tea Party thunder before making herself look like a moron to the greater public, then cut back into religious-based bantering (more than the norm at least) to try and make up for her decline in opinion polling, again much like Perry. Bachman for her part is the first casualty of the actual primaries, having decided to suspend her campaign.

I guess again the most surprising thing here was Rick Santorum. I suppose his disadvantage was also his advantage- his views not having fanned out much in the air has prevented him from making a mess to the public (beyond the mess with his last name). So he has the benefit here of being outside the usual ring of candidates and people having to judge him only so far on what he has written on prepared platforms, statements, and what he said during Iowa.

Romney's margin of 'victory' over Santorum- with some 8 votes at the end- was narrow but one thing surprising along with Santorum;s surge is that Romney managed to put the results he did despite putting in relatively less into Iowa then his competitors.

Of course we have New Hampshire next, though with essentially less than a week for this primary that is in Romney's backyard (polling favors him by a significant margin, 20 points in some) which means many if not all of these guys will focus their actual efforts for South Carolina on January 21st. Like New Hampshire, South Carolina was also penalized for moving their primary to earlier dates and as such South Carolina will have 25 delegates instead of their normal 50.

Like Iowa's primaries which essentially consisted of a "I'm more conservative than him/her" contest among the candidates, or at least the way they decided to campaign, South Carolina will probably be a repeat of this. However with South Carolina being in the Bible Belt and having a strong influence from evangelicals, we'll see religion factor in much more than usual in Republican primaries. Which means for those who are behind, like Governor Perry, they'll probably go into overdrive with appeals to 'Christian' voters.

Wonder if we'll get an idiotic religious-themed ad from Perry like he did with his "Strong" one. Though I suspect Perry might decide to step out if he doesn't perform strongly in a state like South Carolina.

Still not sure what Gingritch or Huntsman might do.




Pethegreat VIP Member

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#7 6 years ago
Just started to read up on Santorum...he sounds pretty good

Sleeping with a dead fetus and have your kids live in VA while you are senator in PA does not make a good candidate Oh and he sent them to a public cyber school in PA at a cost of $73,000 to the tax payers.

Santorum is the worst possible candidate for the GOP. The fact that he got 8 fewer votes than Romney(not much better) hurts what little faith I still have in humanity.

Like Iowa's primaries which essentially consisted of a "I'm more conservative than him/her" contest among the candidates, or at least the way they decided to campaign, South Carolina will probably be a repeat of this. However with South Carolina being in the Bible Belt and having a strong influence from evangelicals, we'll see religion factor in much more than usual in Republican primaries. Which means for those who are behind, like Governor Perry, they'll probably go into overdrive with appeals to 'Christian' voters.

The GOP will loose the election if they keep going further to the right. As a whole the US is in the political center.

I am still rooting for Ron Paul. I don't agree with him 100%, but he can appeal to independents and college age voters better than anyone else running. He also has some good policies.




wjlaslo

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#8 6 years ago
Pethegreat;5598506I am still rooting for Ron Paul. I don't agree with him 100%, but he can appeal to independents and college age voters better than anyone else running. He also has some good policies.

That's how I feel in a nutshell. Half of - actually, probably more like two thirds of - his views, I disagree with, but the fact that he's stuck with those views for pretty much his entire career says he actually means them, no matter how unpopular they've been or how kooky they are.

Obama isn't too great a president. If it came down to Perry (or any other "standard" Republican candidate) or Obama, I'd vote Obama. But Obama versus Paul, a president with no guts and apparently a lot of false promises, a blue dog democrat, vs. a real political upstart? Far more difficult decision. Even if I disagree with a lot of Ron Paul's views, in my assessments, at least he isn't going to play the same old game with corporations buying politicians and pointless wars.

Basically...do I want to try and make progress towards a better government the "standard" way, or do I want to just wreck the system and start over from pretty damn close to scratch?

I guess I'll throw myself in with the 49% of Americans who say there's nobody in the race they want to vote for. All the options have some kind of stink attached, it's just what kind of perfume they're hiding them behind.




Warborg

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#9 6 years ago

I knew Cain was out back when he suspended his campaign. Sorry if I confused people by talking about him

Pethegreat;5598506Sleeping with a dead fetus [/quote] I don't know anything about this. What is the story behind it?

Pethegreat;5598506have your kids live in VA while you are senator in PA does not make a good candidate Oh and he sent them to a public cyber school in PA at a cost of $73,000 to the tax payers. [/quote]Going to a school outside of state doesn't bother me... at our cost does. Just like Obama flying his wife and kids on a separate jet to take a vacation bothers me too.

[QUOTE=Pethegreat;5598506] The GOP will loose the election if they keep going further to the right. As a whole the US is in the political center.

I agree... I think out of all, Romney is the closest to the middle [QUOTE=Pethegreat;5598506] I am still rooting for Ron Paul. I don't agree with him 100%, but he can appeal to independents and college age voters better than anyone else running. He also has some good policies.

Paul is both good and scary. Alot of people like his no war policies...but there are other things that make him too extreme.

I'm not going to lie, I'm setting my personal favorites aside. I want Romney or Paul to go against Obama because I want him out. I don't think the others will even come close as everyone will photoshop Bush's picture over them.

I think Santorum is the favor of the month... I bet he slows down and it will just be Romney and Paul.




Adrian Ţrumpeş Forum Mod

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#10 6 years ago
Warborg;5598623I agree... I think out of all, Romney is the closest to the middle

When it is convenient for him, perhaps. But I'm not too convinced. I'm really quite fascinated with how he started out versus how he is, or claims to be, now. I wouldn't mind him being in office, but he's not my first choice; though given my other choices, he certainly wouldn't be my last.

I do happen to agree with a lot of Dr. Paul's foreign policy mainly because it is refreshing to see a "Republican" who isn't a jingoist.


"I'd shush her zephyr." ~ Zephyr.



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