Voice of joy and sunshine
26th May 2003
Buddy Jesus;5067743Well unfortunatly it seems the history books would disagree with you, Israel still holds the Golan Heights and did hold nearly the entire Sini peninsula. Both egypt and Syria were pretty pissed about that, an Syria remains so. Egypt and especially Syria may still be sitting pretty, in other words still existing as a nations but only because the U.S. had Israel terminate military actions. [/QUOTE]
Syria, Jordan, and Iraq contributed 307,000 troops to the invasion of Israel. Every year somewhere around 200,000 people come of military service age in Syria alone, upon mobilisation they have somewhere around 400,000 troops available. In terms of GDP the 1967 war with Israel wasn't even a blip on the radar
Syria lost a bit of land - almost nothing in terms of actual resources, especially when compared with the size of Syria.
And what's Israel got out of it? Two territories, well no it's already lost one, that it can only hold at ever increasing cost. Although the Golan heights occupy an important strategic location they're only really important if you're in a war - and would not be easily held even then.
Taking land is a matter of taking control of people and things - otherwise it's just an expensive way to color the map in.
Israel has never lost a war but that hardly matters, it has never won the peace.
As for the survival of Syria & co having been dependent upon US intervention this simply isn't true. The IDF did not, and still does not, have the manpower to take any major foreign populations and then consolidate that ground. They could have overcome the armed forces of those countries - indeed they did - but that's a far cry from taking control. As Gaza would seem to illustrate. Multiply that problem by several hundred and you have the result should Israel have invaded its attackers.Buddy Jesus;5067743While this is the truth, the fact of the matter is they do have life support and it's being provided from the U.S. So for Iran to make any rash decision to attack Israel in any sort of manner, it would have to be aware of the reprocussions that would result, more specifically retaliation not just from a nuclear Israel but from a United States air craft carrier or two as well.
Which translates to what in realm terms? Even if Iran loses the war the simple truth is Israel does not have the population base to take and hold it. It may lose whatever military forces it commits - in return it may get rid of Israel - but that's not risking a massive amount of Iran itself.
[QUOTE=Buddy Jesus;5067743]Possibly, but not necessarily. In a conventional manner Iran can't role tanks and troops. It's buffered by Iraq and Turkey. It could use its militant arms such as Hamas and Hezbollah to propagate a war, however such terrorist organizations can't destroy the state of Israel as we know it, not without WMDs.
If it's going the WMD route gasses work quite well, there are things that poison the water and kill crops quite asides from directly killing people. Nukes are big and flashy, but the rest of the WMD arsenal advanced quite a way during the cold war as well and no-one talks about them because you can't really stop someone getting their hands on them for very long if they want them.
Nemmerle;5067968Syria, Jordan, and Iraq contributed 307,000 troops to the invasion of Israel. Every year somewhere around 200,000 people come of military service age in Syria alone, upon mobilisation they have somewhere around 400,000 troops available. In terms of GDP the 1967 war with Israel wasn't even a blip on the radar
But now all of those nations, with the exception of Syria have changed their stance on what they percieved as the Israeli question. Egypt is no longer hostile towards Israel and in fact relations have warmed to quite some extent since 1973. Jordan and Iraq, Iraq mostly because of our influence there now but none the less, have both become much much less hostile toward Israel than in the past, since the last full blown war in 1973. The only true bastion of hate stil resides in syria, and of course Iran. Now all the Arab states may support the palistinians in their pursuit of a state, however they also recognize Israel as a legitament nation. So while Israel didn't win the peace with some countries, such as Syria, it did win it with Egypt, jordan, and now Iraq. And as Iran grows seemingly more powerful, especially as their Nuke program begins to blossom, I believe that the relations between these nations and Israel will continue to get warmer, especially in the case of Iraq. So was a complete peace won through the various wars Israel and the Arab states found themselves in? No, however a partial, but still significant, peace was.
An awful lot of supposition going on. One, That Israels military is even CAPABLE of protracted conventional warfare against a similiarly armed opponent. Two, that said opponents apparently do not exist and three, that anybody with even an inkling of support to the US will blindly support a US/Israeli action against Iran, defensive or not. The populations would not stand for it.
Case and point The recent fight Israel had with Hezbollah. They lost. Badly. Israel, like ALL militaries gears and trains and prepares to fight the last war, in this case they have been fighting what is essentially a civil uprising consisting of disorganized poorly supported individuals with limited weaponry. They find themselves in a shooting war with an enemy that is at its core VERY professional and well organzied and also well equipped. The move their troops and tanks in. and its a shooting gallery. In an effort to make SOME progress the Israelis resort to blindly lashing out at the civilian populace whilst the majority of Hezbollah remains intact. End of the Conflict, Nobody gained anything but thats the point. Hezbollah is a defensive organization. in NOT seceding land or to demands, they won their battle whilst the Israelis gained nothing but lost plenty.
Israeli forces did not lose badly. Their main objectives were not accomplished before the an ineffective ceasefire was declared, but losing badly would have involved a crushing defeat. Both sides gained nothing but bloody noses. Israeli losses can be contributed to poor tactical planning and dealing with a well trained guerrilla force supplied with plenty of advanced ATGMs. The Israelis have faced professional military organizations before but were underestimated the assets the enemy had access to and made mistakes.
The type of war the Israelis fought has been termed a "hybrid war" by some and was a blend of what is traditionally seen as a "conventional" conflict and counterinsurgency "irregular" warfare. The main forces of the enemy and good equipment and was well organized but on a strategic level fought a guerrilla campaign.
As far as the propaganda you hear goes, Israeli tankers weren't bloodied nearly as bad as some will say, they did not lose "hordes of Merkava Mark IVs" as some say. In fact in post-conflict reviews the performance of that latest variant was found to be quite good. Many of the tanks that were lost were actually older models or even Israeli M60 variants. And the number lost was not as huge.
As far as blindly lashing out at civilians, don't buy that BS. The Israelis may be a bit rough when it comes to enemy populace, and I find it hard to blame them considering what they have been dealing with for decades. But civilians aren't specifically targeted by their officers even if they don't have as restrictive ROE as we do. Obviously some mistakes were made in that regard, like in any war, but the IDF does not have some sort of evil plot.
Snipes With Artillery
22nd March 2005
Hezbollah did not get much of a bloody nose, the Lebanese people did. That will make them more likely to turn to Hezbollah, as they were the only effective anti-Israeli force in the neighborhood.
Voice of joy and sunshine
26th May 2003
Buddy Jesus;5068152But now all of those nations, with the exception of Syria have changed their stance on what they percieved as the Israeli question. Egypt is no longer hostile towards Israel and in fact relations have warmed to quite some extent since 1973. Jordan and Iraq, Iraq mostly because of our influence there now but none the less, have both become much much less hostile toward Israel than in the past, since the last full blown war in 1973.
The only true bastion of hate stil resides in syria, and of course Iran. Now all the Arab states may support the palistinians in their pursuit of a state, however they also recognize Israel as a legitament nation. So while Israel didn't win the peace with some countries, such as Syria, it did win it with Egypt, jordan, and now Iraq. And as Iran grows seemingly more powerful, especially as their Nuke program begins to blossom, I believe that the relations between these nations and Israel will continue to get warmer, especially in the case of Iraq. So was a complete peace won through the various wars Israel and the Arab states found themselves in? No, however a partial, but still significant, peace was.
In so far as they're not at war that's true, but it's not what I was talking about.
Of course they're at, 'peace,' every year they're at peace they get stronger while Israel, the Jewish state, gets weaker. Israel will not die to guns and bombs, Israel will die the same way other kingdoms there died when their support went back into the West: Becoming weaker and more irrelevant, the majority of its population gradually becoming the minority, until it's absorbed into the surrounding empires.
Israel is not in a position where there are any good moves left to make. As can be seen all too clearly with the Gaza strip. The most it can play for is a small portion of time. But there's nowhere for it to go - it lacks the population base to expand into surrounding areas, it lacks the innate wealth to go it alone, and the Jewish portion of the population is rich and rich people don't have enough children. The only reason they've lasted as long as they have has been due to discriminatory laws designed to maintain a Jewish majority but it's not enough. Unless they round up the Muslims and start sterilising them, or stick them in an oven somewhere and have their own 'holy fire' Israel's days are numbered.
It's why Gaza was such a clusterfuck, you roll in, you light up some terrorists, kill some civilians and then you leave. And little John who just saw his daddy get lit up by an Israeli tank, or Cassandra over there who just get her leg blown off in the blast from a guided missile attack grow up to raise their children to hate Israel. Let's face it there's not a lot else to do in Gaza. Now John and Cas have a lot of kids. Mr Jew on the other hand is relatively rich, chances are he doesn't have a lot of kids.
In a hundred years will there be anything those who created it might recognise as Israel? I doubt it. Unless Israel cracks out the ethnic cleansing, and reduces the non-Jewish population to a more, manageable, size.
Define 'badly'. Israel went into the conflict with the idea of strong arming their way to whatever end they saw fit, utilizing superior firepower to overcome an enemy that to them consisted of a bunch of ragtag 'fuck ups'. The same kind of people they had been laying down the law to in the terrritories for close to a decade. They move their army up and low and behold, their tanks are getting slagged and their infantry getting pinned down. After a bunch of useless strikes on civilian targets they pull out. That is a loss my friend.
Like if police come to arrest Joe Blow at his house, get shot up from his apartment block, decide to bulldoze his neighbors house 2 blocks over and finally decide 'the hell with it'. They cant claim that just because Joe Blow didnt take over the police station his victory over them wasnt there.
The current Egyptian Government of Mubarak may not be hostile towards Israel but what will happen once Mubarak passes on.
Anyone remember how Mubarak came to be leader of Egypt?
Anyone aware of just how Mubarak has stayed in power so long?
Anyone aware of how many assassination attempts have been made on Mubarak?
If Mubarak were to die today do not expect Egypt and Israel to remain friends for very much longer. There is a very large Muslim population in Egypt that would welcome the defeat of Israel.
I think Egypt would become one of the larger and more radical Muslim states. Same with Saudi Arabia, it is not ruled by radical Muslims because the Royal Family rules with a iron first and they use that fist to smash any dissent or opposition.
Maybe Israel should just consider real peace and share the capitol, before they get nuc'ed themselves........ Sooner or later there gunna cop it, and Israel is a small area, radioactive fall out will demolish them. I think the whole lot of em [middle east ] need to start thinking outside the little idiot box they all live in !..... We should force change in Iran in relation to human rights, and womens rights.
Woot, necroing. :lol: