What's going to happen in Afghanistan? 20 replies

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Karst

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6th January 2005

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#1 11 years ago

Ok, so the North Korea Crisis has settled down considerably, in Iraq things are bad but bad as always, the news of another car bombing is hardly enough to stir anyone. But it seems over these things a lot of people have forgotten about what's going on in Afghanistan. The Taliban are regaining ground and popular support. The president is a marionette of the United States, not taken seriously by the people, he can hardly leave his own palace without being afraid of being assassinated. The police and occupying forces are unpopular as ever because of the increasing civilian casualties in skirmishes with the Taliban, and the destruction of the opium crops which are the basis of the economy, and incidentally opium production has none the less doubled in the last year. And although the other coalition forces (other than the US that is) are starting to spend a little more money on the operation, they are reluctant to still have there troops there. The Taliban call the last year a success in terms of there operations and are planning a major offensive for this summer.

So, what's going to happen in Afghanistan? Is peace and democracy in sight? Perhaps the rapid success has made the coalition overconfident. What will this year bring for the country, and what should be done?




Relander

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#2 11 years ago

I can't say if the following year will be much better unless the coalition countries, especially the United States, commit more money for rebuilding Afghanistan & boosting up its economy and send more troops to stabilize the country & keep the Talibans at the mountains, permanently.

Now that the Democrats are in control and the presidential elections somewhat topical, not to mention Bush trying to boost up his image, perhaps we see more effort on Afghanistan. The talibans are getting support first and foremost because the campaign against opium takes off the living of farmers and there aren't enough troops to protect even the most of the Afghan villages against talibans.

Corruption of Karzai's administration needs to be eliminated and the influence of local warlords have to be minimized by one way or another too. Capturing Osama or knowledge from his death would be a big moral boost for the coalition and a blow for talibans themselves. Winning the hearts and minds of the Afghans is essential, otherwise it's not going to ever work.




Guest

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#3 11 years ago

It's hard to predict what will happen, but as long as the people are divided, the coalition will inevitable lose. The government can't provide for the people, it is full of currption, and it opened the gap for armed gangs and militias. People want stability and their government can't provide that. Of course the talibans will take advantage of that. The coalition will pull out at one point, so they need to win the people's support before the talibans gain more support. As long as there is corruption in the government, thats hard to do.

Capturing Osama or knowledge from his death would be a big moral boost for the coalition and a blow for talibans themselves. Winning the hearts and minds of the Afghans is essential, otherwise it's not going to ever work.

Not really. The people there don't care about Bin Laden. He's gone and unimportant. His death won't bring them stability. It won't really affect the talibans either. Bin Laden is kind of insignificant now.




Roaming East

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#4 11 years ago

Meh, same old pattern as always. Spring rolls around improving the weather allowing for previously holed up taliban fighters to come out and make mischief. Media see's this 'new' mischief as some kind of 'taliban resurgent offensive' and the coalition government steps up and kills them en masse through the spring and summer, driving them into neighboring pakistan where we cant go, where they stay until winter where they then return home and the cycle repeats itself the following spring. Welcome to "Tirbal Warfare 101" Afghanistan isnt so much a country as a big ass plot of land with a bunch of angry people sorta living there. Should have went in, took care of business and bugged out. You cant build infrastructure and a functioning government in a place deadlocked in the 12th frikking century.




Relander

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#5 11 years ago
DecebalusNot really. The people there don't care about Bin Laden. He's gone and unimportant. His death won't bring them stability. It won't really affect the talibans either. Bin Laden is kind of insignificant now.

I think you underestimate the great symbolic & moral value of Osama bin Laden for the talibans and local people. He dared to attack against mighty United States and he's seen as a champion for whole islamic anti-US movement, giving inspiration for future terrorists.

Osama propably isn't in control of planning new terror strikes against the west anymore but he's seen as some kind of father of terrorism in the world. Capturing or killing him would indeed have big moral consequences in both ways, not to mention boosting Bush's ratings (at least for a while).




Karst

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#6 11 years ago
Roaming East;3539318Meh, same old pattern as always. Spring rolls around improving the weather allowing for previously holed up taliban fighters to come out and make mischief. Media see's this 'new' mischief as some kind of 'taliban resurgent offensive' and the coalition government steps up and kills them en masse through the spring and summer, driving them into neighboring pakistan where we cant go, where they stay until winter where they then return home and the cycle repeats itself the following spring. Welcome to "Tirbal Warfare 101" Afghanistan isnt so much a country as a big ass plot of land with a bunch of angry people sorta living there.

Unfortunatly "killing them in masse" is not going to eliminate the threat and won't gain any popular support and thus no longterm stability. The way it looks now is there's a lot more than just a little "mischief" going on, the coaltion aren't really in control of the country as such, the new government is powerless and the police unpopular, opium trade is soaring and skirmishes are slowly, but steadily taking casualties on the troops and much faster on the civilians.

Should have went in, took care of business and bugged out. You cant build infrastructure and a functioning government in a place deadlocked in the 12th frikking century.

To me, taking care of business kinda includes putting functioning infrastructure and government in place. What's taken care of otherwise? If the new government has no power and the coalition leaves, the country will sank back into chaos and the Taliban will most likely regain power.




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#7 11 years ago
I think you underestimate the great symbolic & moral value of Osama bin Laden for the talibans and local people. He dared to attack against mighty United States and he's seen as a champion for whole islamic anti-US movement, giving inspiration for future terrorists. Osama propably isn't in control of planning new terror strikes against the west anymore but he's seen as some kind of father of terrorism in the world. Capturing or killing him would indeed have big moral consequences in both ways, not to mention boosting Bush's ratings (at least for a while).

There was a show on the history channel talking about the opposite. It was called "Hunting for Bin Laden" or something like that. They said the people there didn't really care about Bin Laden and had their own things to take care of. Bin Laden is nothing but a caveman now, his capture is and will only be symbolic. And because of that it won't change much in the area.

Its not like the Talibans will stop fighting lol. Plus Al Qaeda is set up in such a way that if Bin Laden dies, somebody will take his place in seconds.




Relander

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#8 11 years ago
DecebalusThere was a show on the history channel talking about the opposite. It was called "Hunting for Bin Laden" or something like that. They said the people there didn't really care about Bin Laden and had their own things to take care of.

So your basing your entire argument on single channel which provides mostly popular history? Overly simplistic and unilateral I have to say.

Its not like the Talibans will stop fighting lol.

No-one has argued for that.




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#9 11 years ago

Well they actually went on the field and talked to the afghan soldiers there that the US paid to hunt Al Qaeda. They also interviewed thee people there.

What are you basing your comments on? Just guessing? And what makes you think the average people there care about Bin Laden anyway? They want stability.




Relander

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#10 11 years ago
DecebalusWhat are you basing your comments on? Just guessing? And what makes you think the average people there care about Bin Laden anyway? They want stability.

I'm basing my arguments, as always, on various documentaries, newspapers information and especially on common sense. It shouldn't be rocket science that Osama bin Laden is seen as a hero by the talibans and some local people (especially younger ones) who are frustrated on Karzai's corrupt government and coalition occupation, contributing to the fact that the talibans are getting more support in Afghanistan. For the Coalition, Karzai's government and especially for the United States, Osama is a big satan and symbol of world-wide terrorism.

By capturing Osama, the Coalition and Karzai's government could show how seemingly succesful they are against the talibans & Al-Qaeda who terrorize the locals and that they get something done, boosting their image in the eyes of the people and giving hope of better future. Besides, you said it yourself: the capture of Osama would have symbolic value which in turn affects to overall moral & feelings of all parties in Afghanistan: government officials, coalition forces, talibans & Al-Qaeda and regular people.

It's not like my statement or your documentary would provide the general opinion of Afghan people who are divided into two camps: pro-taliban and anti-taliban. Sure, for most of the Afghans the capture of Osama wouldn't mean nothing but nowhere I have said that it would have some huge impact for common people, but that it would have some impact on them and especially for the coalition forces in Afghanistan, that's for sure.

P.S. Understanding what other people write and mean is important if you want to conduct versatile & constructive discussion.